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India behind in IMF assessment, questions arose

The figures of economists’ assessments have surprised many times. Recently the International Monetary Fund has released Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDP growth) estimates, according to which it is lagging behind Bangladesh this year in terms of GDP per capita. Bangladesh’s per capita GDP will increase by four percent to $ 1888, while India’s per capita GDP will increase by 10.5 percent to $ 1877.

The IMF recently released figures, according to which India’s GDP will fall by more than 10 percent, while IMF had predicted a 4.5 percent decline in India’s GDP a few months ago. The thing that has caught everyone’s attention is Bangladesh’s per capita GDP figure. According to IMF estimates, in 2020 the per capita income of an average Bangladeshi citizen will be more than the income of an average Indian citizen.

Typically, countries are compared on the basis of GDP growth rate or full GDP. For most of the post-independence times, India’s economy has been better than Bangladesh on both these counts. India’s economy is 10 times larger than Bangladesh and has grown rapidly every year. However, another factor is included in per capita income. total population. GDP is derived by dividing the total GDP by the total population of Lara. As far as the latest IMF figures are concerned, Bangladesh’s economy has been witnessing a rapid GDP growth rate since 2004. However, the momentum did not change significantly between the two economies between 2004 and 2016 as India grew even faster than Bangladesh.

The second biggest reason is the population growth rate. The population of India has grown rapidly by 21 percent in a span of 15 years. The combined effect of these two factors can be understood that the per capita GDP difference was largely fixed before Kovid-19. Bangladesh’s per capita GDP in 2007 was half that of India. It was 70 percent of India in 2014 and this gap has been rapidly closing in the last few years.

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The immediate factor was the relative impact of Kovid-19 on the economy in 2020. India’s GDP has decreased by 10 percent while Bangladesh is expected to increase by four percent. Has this happened before? Yes, when India was going through a severe crisis in 1991, it grew by just over one percent, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP surpassed India, yet India made a lead again.

The question arises that does India hope to get the edge again? The answer is yes. IMF estimates show that India is expected to grow at a faster rate of per capita GDP next year. Given the low population growth and rapid economic growth of Bangladesh, India and Bangladesh are likely to intensify in terms of per capita income.

This report states that this year the rate of global growth will be reduced to only 4.4 percent and it will be 5.2 percent in 2021. Nepal and Bhutan’s economy is expected to grow this year, while the IMF has not revealed Pakistan’s figures for 2020 and beyond.

Also Read: The historic decline in GDP of 23.9%


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